Mortgage Market Update

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and had plenty to be thankful for.  Unfortunately, mortgage backed securities only received a lump of coal.  Well, I would actually say a truckload of lumps of coal based on the week’s results.

Last week was a shortened week for the holiday and that usually brings volatility to the markets which I warned about last Monday.  I also mentioned we could only hope that the 200-day moving average would hold and stop the “bleeding”, but MBS prices cut through that level like it was paper.  Overall, despite their brief “pause”, MBS prices fell 103 basis points in those four days. 

This week will likely see a retracement, or corrective move as needs to happen in any major move either direction.  A solid 50% retracement would bring them back to their 10-day moving average, which is already below their 200-day MA, but more on that in a moment.  How can MBS prices find strength?  Here is this week’s currently scheduled list of events and data plays…

• Monday:  3-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 6-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 2-year T-Note Auction (1:00), Money Supply (4:30)
• Tuesday:  S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9:00), Consumer Confidence (10:00), 4-week T-Bill Auction (11:30), 5-year T-Note Auction (1:00)
• Wednesday:  MBA Purchase Applications (7:00), Chicago PMI (9:45), Crude Inventories (10:30), 7-year T-Note Auction (1:00)
• Thursday:  Jobless Claims (8:30), Money Supply (4:30)
• Friday:  Markets Closed…HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!

Yet another shortened trading week this week as we end 2009 and begin 2010, so expect the volatility to continue.  The markets will be closed Friday for New Year’s Day.  Will mortgage rates have a reason to celebrate the new year?  I highly doubt it.

Looking at the charts, besides seeing almost nothing but red candlesticks over the last month (MBS prices down nearly 300 basis points since 11/30/2009!!), there is only the glimmer of hope that rests in the need for a retracement.  Stochastic indications support this need as they are literal plastered against the bottom signaling they are majorly oversold.  All moving averages are either falling or have flattened out and about to turn lower.  As I stated earlier, the 10-day MA is now below the 200-day MA and currently marks the 50% retracement level.  The 25-day appears to be setting up to cross below the 50day MA, maybe as the new year starts.  The charts simply look ugly for mortgage rates.

The bottom line is this week will be the same as last, take it day-by-day and despite the potential for the retracement, mortgage rates are heading higher and will continue to do so in all likelihood. 

Have a good week and a may 2010 be a prosperous one for all of you!!!

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Mortgage Market Update

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and had plenty to be thankful for.  Unfortunately, mortgage backed securities only received a lump of coal.  Well, I would actually say a truckload of lumps of coal based on the week’s results.

Last week was a shortened week for the holiday and that usually brings volatility to the markets which I warned about last Monday.  I also mentioned we could only hope that the 200-day moving average would hold and stop the “bleeding”, but MBS prices cut through that level like it was paper.  Overall, despite their brief “pause”, MBS prices fell 103 basis points in those four days. 

This week will likely see a retracement, or corrective move as needs to happen in any major move either direction.  A solid 50% retracement would bring them back to their 10-day moving average, which is already below their 200-day MA, but more on that in a moment.  How can MBS prices find strength?  Here is this week’s currently scheduled list of events and data plays…

• Monday:  3-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 6-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 2-year T-Note Auction (1:00), Money Supply (4:30)
• Tuesday:  S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9:00), Consumer Confidence (10:00), 4-week T-Bill Auction (11:30), 5-year T-Note Auction (1:00)
• Wednesday:  MBA Purchase Applications (7:00), Chicago PMI (9:45), Crude Inventories (10:30), 7-year T-Note Auction (1:00)
• Thursday:  Jobless Claims (8:30), Money Supply (4:30)
• Friday:  Markets Closed…HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!

Yet another shortened trading week this week as we end 2009 and begin 2010, so expect the volatility to continue.  The markets will be closed Friday for New Year’s Day.  Will mortgage rates have a reason to celebrate the new year?  I highly doubt it.

Looking at the charts, besides seeing almost nothing but red candlesticks over the last month (MBS prices down nearly 300 basis points since 11/30/2009!!), there is only the glimmer of hope that rests in the need for a retracement.  Stochastic indications support this need as they are literal plastered against the bottom signaling they are majorly oversold.  All moving averages are either falling or have flattened out and about to turn lower.  As I stated earlier, the 10-day MA is now below the 200-day MA and currently marks the 50% retracement level.  The 25-day appears to be setting up to cross below the 50day MA, maybe as the new year starts.  The charts simply look ugly for mortgage rates.

The bottom line is this week will be the same as last, take it day-by-day and despite the potential for the retracement, mortgage rates are heading higher and will continue to do so in all likelihood. 

Have a good week and a may 2010 be a prosperous one for all of you!!!

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Mortgage Market Update

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and had plenty to be thankful for.  Unfortunately, mortgage backed securities only received a lump of coal.  Well, I would actually say a truckload of lumps of coal based on the week’s results.

Last week was a shortened week for the holiday and that usually brings volatility to the markets which I warned about last Monday.  I also mentioned we could only hope that the 200-day moving average would hold and stop the “bleeding”, but MBS prices cut through that level like it was paper.  Overall, despite their brief “pause”, MBS prices fell 103 basis points in those four days. 

This week will likely see a retracement, or corrective move as needs to happen in any major move either direction.  A solid 50% retracement would bring them back to their 10-day moving average, which is already below their 200-day MA, but more on that in a moment.  How can MBS prices find strength?  Here is this week’s currently scheduled list of events and data plays…

• Monday:  3-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 6-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 2-year T-Note Auction (1:00), Money Supply (4:30)
• Tuesday:  S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9:00), Consumer Confidence (10:00), 4-week T-Bill Auction (11:30), 5-year T-Note Auction (1:00)
• Wednesday:  MBA Purchase Applications (7:00), Chicago PMI (9:45), Crude Inventories (10:30), 7-year T-Note Auction (1:00)
• Thursday:  Jobless Claims (8:30), Money Supply (4:30)
• Friday:  Markets Closed…HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!

Yet another shortened trading week this week as we end 2009 and begin 2010, so expect the volatility to continue.  The markets will be closed Friday for New Year’s Day.  Will mortgage rates have a reason to celebrate the new year?  I highly doubt it.

Looking at the charts, besides seeing almost nothing but red candlesticks over the last month (MBS prices down nearly 300 basis points since 11/30/2009!!), there is only the glimmer of hope that rests in the need for a retracement.  Stochastic indications support this need as they are literal plastered against the bottom signaling they are majorly oversold.  All moving averages are either falling or have flattened out and about to turn lower.  As I stated earlier, the 10-day MA is now below the 200-day MA and currently marks the 50% retracement level.  The 25-day appears to be setting up to cross below the 50day MA, maybe as the new year starts.  The charts simply look ugly for mortgage rates.

The bottom line is this week will be the same as last, take it day-by-day and despite the potential for the retracement, mortgage rates are heading higher and will continue to do so in all likelihood. 

Have a good week and a may 2010 be a prosperous one for all of you!!!

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Mortgage Market Update

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and had plenty to be thankful for.  Unfortunately, mortgage backed securities only received a lump of coal.  Well, I would actually say a truckload of lumps of coal based on the week’s results.

Last week was a shortened week for the holiday and that usually brings volatility to the markets which I warned about last Monday.  I also mentioned we could only hope that the 200-day moving average would hold and stop the “bleeding”, but MBS prices cut through that level like it was paper.  Overall, despite their brief “pause”, MBS prices fell 103 basis points in those four days. 

This week will likely see a retracement, or corrective move as needs to happen in any major move either direction.  A solid 50% retracement would bring them back to their 10-day moving average, which is already below their 200-day MA, but more on that in a moment.  How can MBS prices find strength?  Here is this week’s currently scheduled list of events and data plays…

• Monday:  3-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 6-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 2-year T-Note Auction (1:00), Money Supply (4:30)
• Tuesday:  S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9:00), Consumer Confidence (10:00), 4-week T-Bill Auction (11:30), 5-year T-Note Auction (1:00)
• Wednesday:  MBA Purchase Applications (7:00), Chicago PMI (9:45), Crude Inventories (10:30), 7-year T-Note Auction (1:00)
• Thursday:  Jobless Claims (8:30), Money Supply (4:30)
• Friday:  Markets Closed…HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!

Yet another shortened trading week this week as we end 2009 and begin 2010, so expect the volatility to continue.  The markets will be closed Friday for New Year’s Day.  Will mortgage rates have a reason to celebrate the new year?  I highly doubt it.

Looking at the charts, besides seeing almost nothing but red candlesticks over the last month (MBS prices down nearly 300 basis points since 11/30/2009!!), there is only the glimmer of hope that rests in the need for a retracement.  Stochastic indications support this need as they are literal plastered against the bottom signaling they are majorly oversold.  All moving averages are either falling or have flattened out and about to turn lower.  As I stated earlier, the 10-day MA is now below the 200-day MA and currently marks the 50% retracement level.  The 25-day appears to be setting up to cross below the 50day MA, maybe as the new year starts.  The charts simply look ugly for mortgage rates.

The bottom line is this week will be the same as last, take it day-by-day and despite the potential for the retracement, mortgage rates are heading higher and will continue to do so in all likelihood. 

Have a good week and a may 2010 be a prosperous one for all of you!!!

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Mortgage Market Update

I am running behind schedule today, but things continue to play out exactly as I said they would in last week’s update.  Here is how I ended the Mortgage Market Update last week…

The bottom line this week, expect a swing higher in MBS prices (lower mortgage rates), followed by the resumption of a new leg in the downtrend.  Also, as the Fed makes its announcement on Wednesday, remember not to worry about their decision on rates so much and focus on their Policy Statement.

MBS prices did exactly that, moved higher to about the 50% retracement level, which is a solid retracement.  Then they began there collapse, ultimately beginning what appears to be the next leg lower.  The Fed’s Policy Statement was essentially redundant from last FOMC Meeting and held no surprises.  There is some concern on the inflation side of the equation and that will be on the forefront this week as well.  Overall, we remain seeing slow but steady economic growth and inflation appears to be ramping up again.  All things told, including moves in the dollar, allowed that retracement and then sent mortgage backed securities on their true path.

The week ahead will not be an easy one for MBS prices as volatility will likely be to the extreme as we are in a holiday-shortened week.  The mortgage bond market will close early (at 2:00) on Thursday and be closed in observance of Christmas.  And while data is non-existent today, the week will have plenty in store to possibly create havoc just in time for Christmas.  The question for the week is whether mortgage backed securities will get a nice present, or a lump of coal.

Here is the currently scheduled breakdown of data and events…

• Monday:  3-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 6-month T-Bill Auction (11:30)
• Tuesday:  GDP (8:30), Existing Home Sales (10:00), FHFA House Price Index (10:00), 4-week T-Bill Auction (11:30)
• Wednesday:  MBA Purchase Applications (7:00), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE – 8:30), Personal Income (8:30), Personal Spending (8:30), Consumer Sentiment (9:55), New Home Sales (10:00), Crude Inventories (10:30), Treasury Announcements (11:00)
• Thursday:  Durable Goods Orders (8:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), Bond Market Closes (2:00), Money Supply (4:30)
• Friday:  MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!

While the main player of the week is the PCE report on Wednesday, the other reports could easily cause a market move in today’s environment, especially the GDP and Durable Goods Orders, along with Consumer Sentiment.  News can also have a huge effect on the markets, such as the announcement that Health Care “Reform” has passed the Senate test and may be rammed down our throats in time for Christmas.

Looking at the charts, things remain mostly negative. The 10-day MA has now moved below the 50-day MA as expected.  MBS prices are now testing support at their 100-day and 200-day MAs, the latter being the current MBS pricing level.  Stochastic indications have moved out of the oversold spectrum and are turning negative again with today’s move.  We can only hope the 200-day MA holds again, but momentum simply does not favor that happening.  The key to MBS’s survival, and low mortgage rates, may very well rest on the PCE report.

The bottom line this week is to play it day-by-day again and hope the 200-day MA holds and we can stop the “bleeding”.  From what I can see, especially with the gap lower today, we have begun the next leg lower and higher mortgage rates are on their way.

Have a good week and a very Merry Christmas!!!

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Mortgage Market Update

This week has things getting back to normal in my life, though still hectic, but I am used to that anyway.  As for the mortgage market, things have turned ugly as I warned last week, and while there will need to be a corrective period, or brief floating opportunity, the long haul has turned for the worse.

I said last week would be all about the Treasury Auctions’ results and that is exactly what it was all about.  Those auctions, which had been doing very well, turned weaker this week and traders didn’t like that one bit.  As a result, Treasuries sold off and that spilled over into mortgage backed securities.  We now have some negative signs for the future, meaning higher mortgage rates are all but guaranteed now.  Retail Sales didn’t help by beating expectations either, nor did the fact Consumer Sentiment is increasing

This week will start off light again, with just the short-term Treasury Auctions, which will be interesting to see if they still have strong demand after last week.  This week, however, will have plenty of market moving opportunities, so expect a bump higher in MBS prices, followed by another leg lower, maybe all this week, but I am not optimistic we can stop the new downtrend.  Here is the current schedule for the week…

• Monday:  3-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 6-month T-Bill Auction (11:30)
• Tuesday:  Producer Price Index (PPI – 8:30), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30), Industrial Production (9:15), 4-week T-Bill Auction (11:30), 52-week T-Bill Auction (11:30), Housing Market Index (1:00)
• Wednesday:  MBA Purchase Applications (7:00), Consumer Price Index (CPI – 8:30), Housing Starts (8:30), Crude Inventories (10:30), FOMC Meeting Announcement (2:15)
• Thursday:  Jobless Claims (8:30), Leading Economic Indicators (LEI – 8:30), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10:00), Money Supply (4:30)
• Friday:  No data, Quadruple Witching

As you can see, things move back to data and news versus Treasury Auctions this week.  The main day will be Wednesday, followed by another big data play on Thursday.  It will be interesting to see if MBS prices can break their downtrend, but I would bet against it at this point, though a huge news event could trigger a major market swing.

Looking at the charts, we can see almost nothing but negativity.  Just like the inverted head and shoulders pattern which began the last move higher, we now have a head and shoulders pattern which indicates we are heading lower.  The 10-day MA has moved lower than the 25-day MA and is targeting the 50-day MA now.  MBS prices are below the 50-day, though a retracement will likely bring them back above this level, maybe even back up to the falling 10-day MA.  Stochastic indications show the only light, but it is a rather dim one.  Stochastics are moving into the oversold range on the longer term, but still have room to fall.  Another dim light is the 100-day MA which passed above the 200-day MA, but that will not likely last long the way the rest of the picture looks.

The bottom line this week, expect a swing higher in MBS prices (lower mortgage rates), followed by the resumption of a new leg in the downtrend.  Also, as the Fed makes its announcement on Wednesday, remember not to worry about their decision on rates so much and focus on their Policy Statement.

Have a good week!!!

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Mortgage Market Update

I find myself in a strange place writing this week’s post as I am in a doctor’s office while my son’s dislocated broken finger gets put back in place.  What a trooper as he didn’t even cry when they did it.  And speaking of strange places, we are currently in one in the mortgage market place as the trend could go either way from here and the next several trading days will determine the exact future.

Last week saw the corrective move, or retracement finally take place and the good news is it retraced the full move higher, not just the last one.  That means we could resume an uptrend from here, but things are not always that simple as some key support layers had to be broken to make the move happen and that actually could have broken the uptrend as well.  This is a point where only time will be the deciding factor, but don’t lose hope yet as we are already seeing a move higher today.

OK, what happened to finally let reality hit the markets?  We received the standard mixed signals of the economic recovery as the week got started, but the Chicago PMI was better than expected and got the ball rolling so to speak.  That coupled with the news of salvation for the Dubai debt debacle which set stocks higher and thus mortgage backed securities lower.  The ISM Manufacturing survey was favorable, but not enough to stop the fall long term, and the ADP Employment Report pulled the next rug out.  Thursdays Jobless Claims and Friday’s Jobs Jamboree finalized the move lower, which ironically will now require a corrective move higher at a minimum.

So what lies ahead?  As MBS prices try to resume their prior uptrend, they will face some tough obstacles to prevent the complete trend reversal.  Here is what lies on the current agenda for this week, which will be relatively calm until Friday…

• Monday:  3-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 6-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), Ben Bernanke Speaks (12:00), Consumer Credit (3:00)
• Tuesday:  4-week T-Bill Auction (11:30), 3-year T-Note Auction (1:00)
• Wednesday:  MBA Purchase Applications (7:00), Wholesale Trade (10:00), Crude Inventories (10:30), 10-year T-Note Auction (1:00)
• Thursday:  Jobless Claims (8:30), International Trade (8:30), Elizabeth Duke Speaks (12:45), 30-year T-Bond Auction (1:00), Money Supply (4:30)
• Friday:  Retail Sales (8:30), Import and Export Prices (8:30), Consumer Sentiment (9:55)

As you can see, the beginning of the week, along with the majority of the rest of it, will be all about the Treasury auctions.  If they continue to go well, we will likely see the resumption of the uptrend, but if any go bad, expect this next move higher to be a corrective one, followed by a new downtrend.

The bottom line is that you should be able to float for at least a day or two and improve your client’s mortgage rates right now, but be careful as the week unfolds and be ready for a change for the future.

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Mortgage Market Update

I find myself in a strange place writing this week’s post as I am in a doctor’s office while my son’s dislocated broken finger gets put back in place.  What a trooper as he didn’t even cry when they did it.  And speaking of strange places, we are currently in one in the mortgage market place as the trend could go either way from here and the next several trading days will determine the exact future.

Last week saw the corrective move, or retracement finally take place and the good news is it retraced the full move higher, not just the last one.  That means we could resume an uptrend from here, but things are not always that simple as some key support layers had to be broken to make the move happen and that actually could have broken the uptrend as well.  This is a point where only time will be the deciding factor, but don’t lose hope yet as we are already seeing a move higher today.

OK, what happened to finally let reality hit the markets?  We received the standard mixed signals of the economic recovery as the week got started, but the Chicago PMI was better than expected and got the ball rolling so to speak.  That coupled with the news of salvation for the Dubai debt debacle which set stocks higher and thus mortgage backed securities lower.  The ISM Manufacturing survey was favorable, but not enough to stop the fall long term, and the ADP Employment Report pulled the next rug out.  Thursdays Jobless Claims and Friday’s Jobs Jamboree finalized the move lower, which ironically will now require a corrective move higher at a minimum.

So what lies ahead?  As MBS prices try to resume their prior uptrend, they will face some tough obstacles to prevent the complete trend reversal.  Here is what lies on the current agenda for this week, which will be relatively calm until Friday…

• Monday:  3-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 6-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), Ben Bernanke Speaks (12:00), Consumer Credit (3:00)
• Tuesday:  4-week T-Bill Auction (11:30), 3-year T-Note Auction (1:00)
• Wednesday:  MBA Purchase Applications (7:00), Wholesale Trade (10:00), Crude Inventories (10:30), 10-year T-Note Auction (1:00)
• Thursday:  Jobless Claims (8:30), International Trade (8:30), Elizabeth Duke Speaks (12:45), 30-year T-Bond Auction (1:00), Money Supply (4:30)
• Friday:  Retail Sales (8:30), Import and Export Prices (8:30), Consumer Sentiment (9:55)

As you can see, the beginning of the week, along with the majority of the rest of it, will be all about the Treasury auctions.  If they continue to go well, we will likely see the resumption of the uptrend, but if any go bad, expect this next move higher to be a corrective one, followed by a new downtrend.

The bottom line is that you should be able to float for at least a day or two and improve your client’s mortgage rates right now, but be careful as the week unfolds and be ready for a change for the future.

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NAMB / HUD Webinar Replay:

Effective January 1, 2010, HUD is requiring loan originators provide borrowers with a Standard Good Faith Estimate (GFE) that clearly discloses key loan terms and closing costs and that closing agents provide borrowers with a revised HUD-1 Settlement Statement.

There are three main areas of regulation and updates that mortgage brokers have to pay attention to right now in order to be prepared for 2010:

• GFE/RESPA – Triggers, Settlement Changes, FHA cap on origination fees…
• FHA Appraisal Ordering Policy – Review of Process, Expected Impact
• FHA Mini-Eagle/Broker Approval – Net Worth Requirements, Audits

The purpose of this particular NAMB / HUD webinar was to give mortgage brokers a high level overview of the general changes that they need to be aware of.

While an hour is obviously not nearly enough time to address anything in great detail, our objective is mainly to stimulate conversations and questions that NAMB officials can use in their fight for the rights of mortgage brokers.

There will be a series of other pre-recorded and live webinars released by NAMB during the months of December and January that help mortgage originators understand how to navigate this sea of requirements.

____________

We had a minor tech issue with the gotowebinar service which accidentally cut the sound for most of the people watching the live presentation, but we were able to capture a clean recording.

For those of you that spent your valuable time trying login to a full room or couldn’t hear what was going on, we sincerely apologize for the inconvenience.

The good news is that we always have a recorded version on the web within 24 hours.

You’ll also be able to find the slide-show, detailed bullets of the transcript for easy video navigation, as well as several related valuable articles.

CLICK Following Link For Replay –

January 1 2010 Updates: RESPA/GFE, FHA Broker Approval and Appraisal Reform

____________

I’d like to thank our NAMB Webinar sponsor – Credit Technologies – for their financial endorsement and support of NAMB and the mortgage broker way.

I also received a nice personal email from the president of Viddler.com who helped us get this video up on the web in a manner that allows more people to view and download our replay.

____________

Stay tuned for future NAMB webinars. We look forward to your questions and participation in this regulation process.

CLICK Following Link For Replay –

January 1 2010 Updates: RESPA/GFE, FHA Broker Approval and Appraisal Reform

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Mortgage Market Update

Another week, another day stuck in Brasil.  Not so bad, just like the mortgage market lately.  There are times when I like being wrong, and this is one, though I still do not like the way the charts look and reality will likely set into the markets as the traders come back from the holiday week.

So what happened last week that sent the markets higher?  Well, for one thing, the treasury auctions went very well, even at the longer durations this time, and that despite larger amounts being offered.  Nothing works better than strong demand for sending prices higher, and mortgage backed securities, and thus mortgage rates, reaped the overflow.  Add to that the housing data this past week showed the market is not doing as bad as the data the prior week suggested.  Even Purchase applications are starting to rise again, providing more hope.  Is it all a result of the tax credit?  Inflation is still fairly tame, but is climbing again and Jobless Claims fell below the 500K mark for the first time since the beginning of the year.  But one of the biggest events of the week didn’t even happen in the US, but in Dubai.  Dubai World, the largest corporate entity in that region, revealed it may default on its $60 billion in debt and that set equities across the globe into a dive, and MBS prices rose more.  It is events like this that breaks the “projections” of charts at times.  But will the rubber band break or snap back with a vengeance?

Well, the week ahead starts off fairly strong with the Chicago PMI later today, has data plays through the week, ultimately ending the week with a bang, the Jobs Jamboree.  Here is this week’s currently scheduled data and events…

• Monday:  Chicago PMI (9:45), 3-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 6-month T-Bill Auction (11:30)
• Tuesday:  ISM Manufacturing Index (10:00), Pending Home Sales (10:00), 4-week T-Bill Auction (11:30), Charles Plosser Speaks (12:20)
• Wednesday:  MBA Purchase Applications (7:00), ADP Employment Report (8:15), Crude Inventories (10:30), Beige Book (2:00)
• Thursday:  Ben Bernanke Speaks (TBA), Barack Obama Speaks (?), Jobless Claims (8:30), Productivity and Costs (8:30), 30-year T-Bond Announcement (9:00), ISM Services Index (10:00), Treasury Announcements (incl. 3 & 10-year T-Notes) (11:00), Money Supply 4:30)
• Friday:  Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30), Unemployment Rate (8:30), Hourly Earnings (8:30), Average Work Week (8:30), Charles plosser Speaks (10:00), James Bullard Speaks (1:15), Treasury STRIPS (3:00)

Once again we have a week full of possible market movers, and this week likely will do just that.  Will we continue to see some mixed indications on the economy, or will things begin to change?

Looking at the charts, we again see both positive and negative indications surrounding the future.  The good news is we are in an uptrend, along with the fact the 100-day MA is likely going to move through the 200-day MA.  Stochastic indications still point to the need for a corrective move, that retracement I have talked about.  I still expect to see MBS prices dip to around there 25-day MA at a minimum before they can take the next step.  That corrective move will likely take place this week and let’s hope it holds because that would be a very good thing for the future of mortgage rates.

The bottom line this week is that traders will be back in full force so any moves will be “real” ones.  A corrective move remains a necessity and will likely occur this week.  As we have been, take it one day at a time, but expect higher mortgage rates, possibly throughout the week, then we might see MBS prices take the next step higher.

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