Lame Duck Bush Loses Power to Direct Hurricanes

(2008-08-31) — Delegates to the Republican National Convention will have a sharply curtailed schedule of events Monday because, in the waning months of his presidency, George W. Bush has apparently lost the ability to control the intensity and paths of hurricanes.

With Category 4 Hurricane Gustav bearing down on the Gulf Coast, President Bush can do little more than monitor the situation and coordinate the response from Washington D.C..

Just three years ago, at the height of his second term, even the president’s critics acknowledged he was responsible for a direct hit by Hurricane Katrina on the poor neighborhoods of New Orleans.

This week he has canceled a planned speech at the convention in St. Paul, Minnesota, so he can supervise the federal government response to the potential disaster from the White House, which is 106 miles closer to New Orleans than St. Paul is.

In the nation’s capital, Mr. Bush will have access to the presidential cell phone, allowing him to direct distribution of relief supplies to specific homes, as well as specify the exact placement of sandbags and industrial pumps in the Ninth Ward.

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RNC 2008: Republican Jaywalkers in Broad Daylight

(Minneapolis, MN) — ScrappleFace investigative cameras capture Republicans flagrantly violating the law in downtown Minneapolis — a city which teeters on the brink of chaos.

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RNC 2008: Black GOP Chair on Obama, Iraq and More

THIS IS NOT SATIRE…
(Minneapolis Convention Center) — The vast editorial staff at ScrappleFace caught up with Timothy Johnson, chairman of the Buncombe County, North Carolina, Republican Party — the only black GOP county chairman in the state. Dr. Johnson, a 21-year Army veteran, shares his thoughts on Affirmative Action, the U.S. mission in Iraq, the presidential candidacy of Sen. Barack Obama and more.

Note: There’s no reasonable explanation for why our staff videographer couldn’t tilt the Flip Video camera high enough to afford a view of the rest of Dr. Johnson’s head.

.

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Open Thread and Diary Rescue

Tonight’s Rescue Rangers are Yashua, watercarrier4diogenes, ezdidit, Larsstephens, PaintyKat and drbcladd, with claude serving as Editor.

Rescued tonight are these diaries:

• Christy1947 asks questions about gas pipelines and enabling legislation in Palin and Treble Damages; what fiduciary responsibility does a state’s chief executive have to the state? (drbcladd)
• A Siegel offers money-saving tips and political insight in Eco-Driving USA: Greenwashing with value. (ezdidit)
• ResponsibleAccountable brings us My theory on RNC and Gustav (and Mohammed Ali fighting Henry Cooper); a rope-a-dope to a cut lace—these are the times that try humans’ analogies. (drbcladd)
• D Wreck brings us a well researched and thorough piece on McCain’s impact on the American Economy in John McCain’s Invisible Tax on the Middle Class. (Yashua)
• Kino provides the highlights where Goolsbee destroys Kudlow: Lies of the Supply Siders. Isn’t it fun to read a real economist debating those who only play one on TV? (drbcladd)
• Wisdumb, a first time diarist offers some suggestions for changes for the Democratic Party in 5th of November. (PaintyKat)
• The Essene, also a first-time diarist, expounds on how the Democratic Party has wisely chosen to minimize the focus on abortion as a political issue in What Life Beginning at Conception Really Means. (PaintyKat)
• EricAZ introduces us to the neglected deep background of a candidate’s genesis and The Phony Who Created McCain’s Political Persona. (Larsstephens)
• TheManfromMiddletown shifts the focus from the conventional obsession of the even now gathering storm to the more likely approaching geo-petro-economic disaster of Gustav Eyeing Gulf Oil and the LOOP. (Larsstephens)
• Io explores her own identity politics and history while sharing the personal vindication that comes with diversity in Biracial Like Me. (Larsstephens)
• Stranded Wind brings us another diary in his great series, Analyzing the Pickens Plan: Water. (watercarrier4diogenes)
• emcneill relates a heart-warming exchange with her young son in Segregation…what’s that? (watercarrier4diogenes)
• Johnny Venom explains how our present administrations poor judgement and leadership is contributing to more than just another loss in the war on terror within The Taliban in Pakistan, from the wasteland to the cities now. (Larsstephens)

jotter has High Impact diaries, daily and weekly.

va dare has Top Comments 8.31.08 Random Sunday Stuff.

Use this open thread to promote other good writing we may have missed. The “Rescue Day” runs from 3pm yesterday to – 3pm today, PDT.

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You know, there was a time when he didn’t stare at an ass for five and a half years…

“Hotter’n the bottled water we need to deliver to those dehydrated babies!”

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Good Neighbors

Not only was the Big Tent itself constructed with green principles in mind, it was lucky to have some very green neighbors. On one side was the Alliance Center operated by the Alliance for a Sustainable Colorado. Not only is the Alliance Center a double-LEED certified building with an Energy Star Leader rating, it’s notable for it’s not. It’s not a new building. It’s a century old warehouse that was remodeled and refitted to make it one of the most energy efficient (and sustainably outfitted) buildings in the nation.

For those in the Big Tent last week, the Alliance Center served as a place full of places to share a meal, places to conduct a quick meeting — and places for a blessed moment of cool silence.

Across the street from the Big Tent, the EPA’s regional headquarters was an absolutely spectacular example of what can be done with green design. Walking into the tall, glass-lined atrium complete with a waterfall that trickles down over rough blocks to flow into a stream of rounded cobbles that cuts across the floor, may make you think that the building is anything but green. But what you see is deceptive. Not only is the area extremely well insulated, the tumbling stream serves as the humidifier for the building. The tall glass walls, aided by an innovative (and beautiful) series of cloth sails at the top, direct sunlight through the building to reduce the need for artificial light. They’re helped by light shelves and fins of various orientation on the outside of the building. Sensors add only enough light to bring the areas in use to a comfortable level. If the daylight is enough, or if no one is around, the lights are off. If the goal is 60 lumens, and daylight is providing 40, the lights put out 20, not the whole 60 (and not the 100+ used in most buildings). Even the glass elevators along the wall use mechanisms that are much smaller than in most buildings, and operate on about half the power.

Cloth sails redirect light around the atrium

Throughout the building, materials are local or sustainable and often both. What appears to be wooden work area is actually made from wheat chaff. A central desk that looks to be onyx is composed of shredded aluminum pop cans mixed with a resin. Cloth is made from corn starch. Counters are made from concrete laced with glass that’s not only recycled, but designed to be recycled again in some distant future. Glues used in carpets and materials are water-based

Air flow through the building isn’t confined to vents, but flows through the subfloors. This allows vents to be placed and adjusted anywhere, and eliminates the vision of people using a fan at their desk when the air conditioner isn’t keeping up, or a heater when it’s keeping up too well. You can drop in an extra vent anywhere you’ve got someone extra warm-blooded, and move the vents away from those with frozen toes, without performing building surgery.

And of course there’s the green roof. Starting with a white roof that already greatly reduced the building’s cooling costs, the roof is topped with modular units holding a mixture of ground cover sedum and native plants. Unlike many green roofs, this installation is shallow and light enough that it doesn’t require extensive reinforcement. Despite doubts about how such a thin installation would survive in a climate like Denver’s, so far the roof is thriving and tests are underway to determine which plants work best. Not only does this roof provide heading and cooling benefits, it also helps capture and slow water runoff, which ultimately saves the building space at the ground level that would otherwise be devoted to features like sand pits. Matching solar powered weather stations on the roof of the EPA headquarters and the Alliance building measure the difference created by adding this feature to these already very efficient buildings.

Green roof as seen from a nearby building under construction.

Then there’s the bathroom fixtures. Both the Alliance Center and the EPA headquarters use fixtures that go beyond “low flow.” Where a regular toilet may use as much as five gallons in a flush, and a low flow around two, these use less than one gallon that’s pressurized to give it more oomph. The faucets also have a pressurized system — one that generates electricity to add extra pressure by capturing the energy of water flowing down the drain. And both buildings feature waterless urinals that use a cartridge containing a layer of vegetable oil to separate out the waste with no flush at all. Who says there’s been nothing new in plumbing since the Romans?

In addition to the attention given all the materials used to make the EPA building, equal effort is put into making efficient use of the people and public transportation. Those who work in the building get a pass on Denver’s light rail system as part of their job, and on any given day about a quarter of the staff is at home, telecommuting. During the convention, with downtown crowded and the nearest train station closed, a larger portion of the staff worked from home.

Everything’s not perfect. The building isn’t meeting the goals set for water use, and the roof is still a work in progress. There are also political problems. Though the building houses an excellent educational center and library of environmental resources, the Bush administration has ordered these moved from street level to a place where the public has much more trouble accessing the data (in fact, without knowing that it’s there, you’d have a hard time even figuring out the EPA was in the building).

Overall, this is a terrific example that not only can you create a building that meets high demands for sustainable construction and operation, you can do it without blowing your budget — and you can end up with a place where people really want to work. More than anything else, what this building reflects is thought. At every step, someone took the opportunity to stop and think “why have we always done it this way” and “what if we did it that way instead.” That thoughtfulness shines through.

Buildings like this are exactly what programs like the EnergySmart section of Energize America are all about. The goals can be met in new construction, like the EPA regional headquarters, and in older buildings, like the Alliance Center. There’s no reason that your local schools, post offices, and other government buildings can’t be constructed with the same level of thought. The more often commercial buildings are built to these standards, the more familiar the construction techniques and materials will become, and the more available they’ll be when it comes time to replace or refit your home or office.

(Note: My thanks to Joni Teter, who not only gave me a tour of the EPA building, but provided the pictures for this diary.)

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So, What Do We Do Now?

With Joe Biden officially nominated as Barack Obama’s running mate – and, in all likelihood, the next Vice President of the United States – what’s going to happen to everyone who was passed over for the veep nomination, and now has to go back to their normal jobs?

And what does this mean for 2016? Should Obama win election as President this fall (and presumably be renominated in 2012, whether or not he wins), Vice-President Biden will be 73 years old on Election Day in 2016. That would make him the oldest first-time Presidential nominee in U.S. history, older even than John McCain is now. It’s a fairly safe bet that Biden will not do this, leaving the field open on the Democratic side.

Now, it’s practically impossible to tell at this juncture who might run in 2016. A year ago, Eliot Spitzer would have been the top name on everybody’s list. And no one knows what the future holds for up-and-coming politicians like Brian Schweitzer, Sherrod Brown or Martin O’Malley. Still, one has to figure that at least a few of the most prominent presidential and VP candidates this year might have an eye on the nomination in eight years. And they have all got to figure out something to do in the meantime.

So what can we expect from the Kaines, Bayhs, Clintons, Sebelii, Warners and Chet Edwardses over the next several years? Assuming none of them end up in the Cabinet, here are some ideas…

Passed over for the veepancy, Chet Edwards will most likely sit tight in the House after his brief brush with fame. As a relatively low-profile, conservative Democrat (though a remarkably progressive vote given his blood-red district), Edwards wouldn’t seem to be a top candidate for national office (barring an election to statewide office in Texas).

He may well try to move up at some point. It is highly unlikely that he will run for Governor of Texas in 2010, as political titan Kay Bailey Hutchison is expected to run for the Republicans and Houston mayor Bill White will likely crowd out the Democratic field. Should Hutchison win, however, there will be a special election for U.S. Senate coming up, so it’s possible Edwards could run for that. Edwards is an extremely valuable vote in the House, however (he hails from the most conservative district in the nation represented by a Democrat), and a run for higher office would likely be discouraged by House leaders as it would almost certainly mean the loss of a seat.

The selection of Biden is excellent news for Mark Warner, who had been rumored as a vice-presidential nominee since he first opted against a presidential run. He’s probably the greatest beneficiary, in political terms, of Obama’s choice (well, besides Obama and Biden themselves). Warner is still fairly young, and will only be 61 years old in 2016. Since Biden, in all likelihood, will not be running, Warner has a fine opportunity to position himself as the front-runner for the nomination after Obama leaves office. Warner’s children will be grown by that time; should he still desire the presidency in 2016, he’ll have a perfectly good shot.

Over the next eight years, he can reasonably be expected to enjoy the U.S. Senate seat he should win handily this fall, and build up a power base for any future run for the top job.

Evan Bayh can also be expected to sit tight in D.C., as he’s likely to hold his Senate seat for as long as he wants it. Despite having been involved in politics at a high level for decades, Bayh is still only 52 years old, and will be only 60 in 2016, so he will have another crack at the Oval Office if he still wants one. Bayh’s problem, of course, is that he’s simply not that exciting a candidate, and could really have used the advantage of the vice-presidency, and the national profile it brings, to wage a strong run for the presidency in his own right.

That said, Bayh could end up being the beneficiary of a Cabinet appointment in an Obama administration, a posiition that could improve his national profile to the point where a Presidential run is more viable.

Hillary Rodham Clinton should be able to hold on to her Senate seat as long as she wants it as well. She may have some work to do to heal resentment in New York’s black community, but she’llptobably  be able to do that very well.

Will she ever run for the presidency again? It’s conceivable. Obviously, if Obama loses this election, she’d be high on the list of potential 2012 nominees. It is highly unlikely he will lose, though.

Clinton will be 68 years old in 2012. That’s old for a presidential candidate, but two older candidates have won their party’s nomination (Ronald Reagan and John McCain), and one of them became one of the nation’s most beloved presidents (though God only knows why).

She will certainly be high-profile enough that her candidacy would be taken seriously despite her age. However, she’d have to face a wide-open field of younger, enthusiastic candidates at that point, and who knows? At 68, she may simply be uninterested in another draining presidential run, as close as she came to making history in 2008. I’d expect her not to run after Obama finishes, but one never knows.

One absolutely safe bet is that she will not run for Governor in 2010. It would be an unbelievably politically risky move to take on an incumbent African-American governor (David Paterson) with the 2008 campaign still fresh in memory.

Kathleen Sebelius is roughly the same age as Hillary Clinton – she’ll be 67 years old in 2016. Unlike Clinton, however, I doubt she’d be a strong national candidate at 67; while Clinton is nationally known in advance (as Reagan and McCain were), Sebelius will, in all likelihood, still have a fairly limited national profile absent a Cabinet appointment (though that itself is not out of the realm of possibility, given her close relationship with Obama).

Sebelius can make history, however, by running for what will be an open U.S. Senate seat vacated by Sam Brownback in 2016. She would be a strong frontrunner in that race, and if elected, she would be the first Democratic Senator from Kansas in John McCain’s lifetime, and the first Democratic woman elected to the Senate in Kansas’ history. Since she isn’t the Vice-Presidential nominee, she doesn’t appear to have a good reason not to run.

Just as his predecessor Mark Warner benefited from the selection of Joe Biden, it is terrible news for Virginia Governor Tim Kaine. Kaine is term-limited after 2009 (though he can run for the Governorship again in 2013), and with Mark Warner likely to take one Senate seat and fellow Democrat Jim Webb sitting in another, he has nowhere to move up.

Kaine can wait for a second gubernatorial run, of course. And frankly, it’s possible Webb may vacate his Senate seat after one term in 2012, leaving another golden opportunity for Kaine. Still, Kaine has to be on the short list of people praying for a Cabinet appointment; it would be the best thing he could hope for to keep him in the national eye after 2009.

Kaine is the youngest of the prospective-veep gang – he’ll be just 58 years old in 2016 – so if he does figure out a way to stay relevant on the national scene (via a second term as Governor, a Senate victory, or a prominent Cabinet position), he could be in fairly good position for a 2016 run.

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McCain’s Reaction to Hurricane Katrina (yes, Katrina)

With Hurricane Gustav bearing down on the Gulf Coast, John McCain is playing President Wannabe in Mississippi today, showing just how darned concerned and presidential he is. Which makes this a good time to remind people of what he was doing three years ago when Hurricane Katrina was devastating the Gulf Coast. Of course no one can forget that on the day that New Orleans was drowning, John McCain was busy having cake with George Bush, but what was his reaction a week later, as the scope of the humanitarian disaster was still playing out day after day, as a horrified nation looked on and as an incompetent administration sat on its hands?

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has occasionally been a thorn in the side of the White House. However, he warns against “premature judgments” about the government’s response, noting that “we were all surprised” by Katrina’s scope, ferocity and damage. McCain does not provide any specifics, but he signals a willingness to follow Bush’s lead on investigating any shortcomings. “Just as the president said this morning, we need to find out what we did right and what we did wrong. I agree with him.”

No, we were not “all surprised” by Katrina. In fact, three years ago, while McCain’s birthday cake was baking, Darksyde wrote:

Urgent Warning Thread: Hurricane Katrina Strength Unprecedented

Anyone who was paying attention to the news instead of planning their birthday party knew what Katrina was. And in the days that followed, as we watched bodies floating in the streets of a major American city and saw thousands of stranded, starving Americans waiting for help, John McCain was willing to wait and to follow George Bush’s lead. Just as he is following George Bush’s lead today with his politically motivated photo-op visit to Mississippi, and just as he has followed George Bush’s lead for the past eight years. And we’re still waiting for that investigation.

Update: This video speaks for itself.

[h/t to Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse]

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The Surge

Gustav is bearing down on Louisiana and showing possible signs of strengthening. The hurricane is still a powerful Category 3 storm and has grown in sheer size to be every bit as broad as Katrina. Latest Advisory from the NHC:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH…185 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER…BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

Following up on the surge warning and disaster prep DemFromCt posted below, the biggest danger to communities near the coast during a hurricane is the storm surge shown in schematic above. The much larger wind-driven surge is the result of water being piled up by wind, and that effect is significantly larger for the side of the eye that’s blowing toward the coast. In the case of Gustav, any place just east of where the eye eventually crosses the coast will experience the max surge. Jeff Masters’ takes a crack at estimating the consequences for Gustav Vs. levees.

If the NHC storm surge forecast is correct, there will likely be multiple levee failures in the New Orleans levee system resulting in flooding of portions of the city. However, the extent of Gustav’s current weakening was unexpected, and this could substantially reduce the storm surge. Given the current intensity forecasts, I believe there is a 60% chance that a lower storm surge of 12-15 feet, characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, will affect the city. If the Army Corps of Engineers’ assertion that the levee system can withstand a Category 3 hurricane is correct, the levees will hold.

The surge acts a lot like and can be as destructive as a major tsunami. Beach front communities in Mississippi were leveled by Katrina’s 25 foot surge on the storm’s stronger eastern side, but the water receded as quickly as it had come. The levees in New Orleans were breached in 50 seperate places by the less severe western surge, and the city was flooded for weeks; until the water could be pumped out.

The dynamic could be reversed in the case of Gustav, currently projected to strike west of NOLA. If Gustav strikes just barely to the west of NOLA, the levees, rated for a Cat 3, will take the full brunt of Gustav’s maximum landfall storm surge. That’s why any change in Gustav’s intensity now even if he goes on to weaken, and the precise point of landfall, are so important.

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Non-Partisan Disaster

From National Hurricane Center:

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 12 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  

With Gustav bearing down on New Orleans (see millwx for updated news, as well as the National Weather Service), let’s look at this from the point of view of a potential natural disaster.

There will be a National Response Framework plan in place. There will be pre-positioned elements of FEMA, including a Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO) who is responsible for coordinating the delivery of resources from other agencies and entities and generally to administer disaster relief. This is the guy with the Federal money.

There will also be a Principal Federal Official (PFO) from DHS:  

For major incidents that require an extraordinary level of coordination across multiple disciplines and functions and overlapping Federal and State authorities, the Secretary of Homeland Security may appoint a PFO to assist the Secretary in executing his or her responsibilities as the overall domestic incident manager. Acting on the Secretary’s behalf, the PFO will coordinate the activities of other Federal officials, acting under their own authorities, to ensure consistency of Federal support as well as the overall effectiveness of the Federal incident management. The PFO will serve as a member of the Unified Coordination Group and provide a primary point of contact and situational awareness locally for the Secretary of Homeland Security.

If this is a big enough disaster, Michael Chertoff will be in charge of the Federal response, with the on-the-ground PFO reporting to him, and FEMA directing the relief through the FCO. If it’s a smaller disaster, things will be managed more locally. But local and state responses will occur first, then need to be coordinated with larger responses.

So, while Federal elements will be pre-positioned, they will get involved when requested to by the states, according to the Stafford Act:

…within the government’s mother of all disaster plans, the National Response Framework, is how the Stafford Act support to states might work (click for bigger pic):

Note in the Stafford Act chart that it’s the Governor, who asks FEMA, who asks the President to declare a Federal disaster or emergency so as to free up funds and relief that through the National Response Framework can be delivered to the states. If the Governor does not or cannot ask (i.e in a catastrophic situation), things may slow down, but FEMA, through the FCO, can help smooth over that process if a FCO has been appointed. If not, other catastrophic mechanisms outside the Stafford Act may need to apply.

What we do not know yet is where the storm will hit (and in NOLA how the levees will hold.) We do know the head of FEMA is no longer Michael Brown; it’s David Paulison, a professional emergency manager. As you watch this unfold, keep an eye on this unwieldy and newly revamped system and let’s see how it works.  And do note: any political party or candidate who interferes with this for political gain by showboating will end their career. After Katrina, there is no tolerance in this country for anything but professional disaster management at every level: local, state and federal.

Louisiana residents can dial 211 if you need shelter, residents in other states should dial 1-866-438-4636.

Glossary and acronyms (FCO, PFO, PIO, JIC, EOC, etc.) are here. I hope it’s not needed, but I fear it will.

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