House and Senate Roundup: Post Netroots Nation Edition

First off, for any election junkies out there, I’ve never seen anything like Netroots Nation. It was a remarkable experience, affording anybody with the inclination the opportunity to talk to candidates, campaign staffers, DC people, and some of the very best state and local bloggers in the nation.

(”So, a campaign staffer, a DCCC staffer, and a blogger walk into a bar…”)

I learned so much this weekend from so many people, and I’m really fortunate to have had the opportunity to attend. I couldn’t recommend it more highly.

OK, enough about that. On to the races (off to the races?)

OK-Sen: Check out Orange to Blue  candidate Andrew Rice’s newest ad:

Rice raised $450K last quarter, very good for an Oklahoma Democrat. Still, he trails Inhofe badly in cash-on-hand. So if you want to keep this ad on the air, feel free to head to the Orange to Blue page and help out!

ME-Sen: According to Rasmussen, Susan Collins remains under 50%, and continues to hold a single-digit lead over Tom Allen:

This has always been a marathon, as opposed to a sprint. Allen has been slowly closing for a long time; this is the first month in quite some time in which he has not shown positive movement. That said, given Collins’ popularity in the state, seven points down isn’t a bad place to be at all.

NH-Sen: MissLaura wrote about the necessity of tempering optimism, even in races in which the current indicators are terrific (as they are in New Hampshire). After the phone-jamming debacle of 2002, especially, there is no taking anything for granted:

Even as longshot races are looking good, people on top-tier races know they can’t take anything for granted. In her Senate race in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen has had consistent leads in polling for months now. But when I talked to her daughter Molly (who is blogging her mother’s race), she emphasized that they know they have a fight. They know that, in a rematch of the race that saw the blatant lawbreaking of phone jamming in 2002, they face an opponent who will go somewhere below dirty. So no matter what the polls say, the Shaheen team knows they need to keep fighting every day for this victory.

Incidentally, Shaheen outraised Sununu last quarter by roughly $500,000. This is excellent news, but as MissLaura wrote, it is very dangerous to rest on our laurels.

KY-Sen: Speaking of fundraising news, Bruce Lunsford is committed to keeping pace with fundraising juggernaut Mitch McConnell. Largely through personal donations to his own campaign, Lunsford matched McConnell’s stunning $3 million take from last quarter.

It’s exceptionally inspiring to see a Democratic candidate who can go toe-to-toe with McConnell in terms of money.

AK-Sen: The polls are still showing a tossup. With the May R2K poll numbers in parentheses:

Rasmussen will have a poll out later today on this race.

Democratic Mayor of Anchorage Mark Begich was kind enough to join us at Netroots Nation, and spoke on Friday’s energy panel. Here’s a TPM interview with Alaska’s next Senator:

OR-Sen: TPM also interviewed Jeff Merkley at Netroots Nation:

MN-Sen: Here’s the latest ad from Orange to Blue candidate Al Franken:

GA-Sen: Check out these two polls. Saxby Chambliss against Vernon Jones:

And against Jim Martin:

June results in parentheses.

For those who want a shot at winning, the choice is pretty clear.

House Races

AK-AL: Research 2000 also polled Alaska’s House race, and finds Democrat Ethan Berkowitz leading Republican incumbent Don Young:

Both candidates’ primary opponents (Democrat Diane Benson and Republican Sean Parnell) were not polled. The race leans Democratic if Young wins his primary, and leans Republican if Parnell wins.

AL-03: Young Democrat Josh Segall, a true sleeper candidate running in a moderately conservative district in Alabama, liveblogged at Future Majority.

One interesting nugget is that the district is 33% African-American, which is especially exciting in a year which features an African-American presidential candidate atop the ticket. The district was originally drawn to favor a Democrat slightly, but Democratic party chair Joe Turnham lost a narrow race in 2002.

Segall is quite progressive, perhaps more so than the district would ordinarily permit. In a year like we expect this to be, however, anything may be possible, and this will certainly be a race to watch going forward.

NJ-05: Dennis Shulman gets some good coverage in The New Yorker, from Jeffrey Toobin:

Throughout American history, the number of blind rabbis serving in Congress has remained steady at zero. In a cluttered campaign office next to the Naturoll sushi takeout in Haworth, New Jersey, Dennis Shulman is trying to change that. Shulman, who is fifty-eight, has a snowy beard and a sunny disposition. “I’m going down to Atlantic City later today to meet with the building-trades guys, and I love them,” he said the other day, surrounded by a roomful of volunteers. “I don’t think of my life as the sacred and the profane. I just think of it as expanding my pulpit.”

OH-01: Republican Steve Chabot’s internals:

Chabot is a slick, battle-tested campaigner, but it’s significant that his own internals have him only at 50%, and confirms the conventional wisdom that this race is “Lean Republican”, at best, for Steve Chabot.

On the web:

Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

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