Dem Cattle Call 2008: 12/13

It’s getting pretty darn tight at the top.

View the latest polls and the composite “poll of the polls” in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

THE TOP TIER

1. Hillary Clinton

Another rough week, and there aren’t many more until the first votes are cast. She’s facing a surging Obama in Iowa and New Hampshire, and even South Carolina is starting to close (with most polling done before the Oprah event). Hillary still has the big lead in Nevada, but that state has become quite irrelevant this campaign.

In the news, her New Hampshire co-chair Billy Shaheen was forced to resign after “wondering” whether Obama had been a drug dealer (a charge so tactless, classless, and politically unwise that we must hope it doesn’t rub off on his wife’s critical Senate race). Further creating problems for her New Hampshire image, four staffers were caught sockpuppeting Blue Hampshire.

These aren’t the mistakes made by a confident “frontrunner” campaign, and those are certainly not the numbers of an inevitable frontrunner. So is that enough to knock her off this top perch?

I considered flipping a coin, but I’m sticking with Hillary at the top. Obama is coming on strong, but with Iowa essentially tied, I worry about the ability of his young college student supporters to get to Iowa to caucus before their dorms are open, not to mention their lack of caucusing experience (which killed Dean in 2004). All else being equal (including the poll numbers), this might be enough to give Iowa to Hillary. And with Iowa, the rest of the states are still tight enough that Obama could take a mortal blow.

I don’t think Hillary is long for the top slot, but she holds on by a hair for another week.

2. Barack Obama

You know things are going well when it’s a good thing you’re accused of being a drug dealer.

3. John Edwards

He’s polling third in Iowa, but close enough that his reputedly solid ground game should keep him in it. If Hillary and Barack go nuclear on each other, he could pull a Kerry and slip in. However, so far only Clinton seems to be going nuclear. And the more voters look for an anti-Clinton, the less well he does. Obama seems to be locking up that constituency.

THE SECOND TIER

None.

THE REST

The rest of the field is now inconsequential. Their only relevance is who their supporters will select as their second choice in Iowa.

Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, Dennis Kucinich, and Mike Gravel

Disclaimer: In the Daily Kos straw poll Wednesday I voted for Obama, not because I actively support him, but because he was the only candidate left after a process of elimination. I’d be happy with any of our candidates except Biden, Kucinich, or Gravel. Still, this obviously means that I’ve been bought and paid for, because I obviously can’t think for myself without a few greenbacks slipped into my wallet.

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