10/8 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 51, McCain 41

Today’s Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain 51-41. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday’s numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day’s data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.

                 Obama      McCain    MoE +/-   RV/LV
Today
Research 2000:  51 (52)    41 (41)    3         LV
Reuters/Zogby:  47 (48)    45 (45)    2.8       LV
Rasmussen:      51 (52)    45 (44)    2         LV
Battleground:   49 (49)    45 (44)    3.5       LV
Diageo/Hotline: 45 (46)    44 (44)    3.2       LV  [40%D, 38%R, 18%I, a change]
Yesterday
Gallup:         51 (50)    42 (42)    2         RV

On successive days in the R2K poll, Obama was up +11 Sun, +9 Mon and +8 Tues. The highest Obama single day lead was +13. Obama’s number remains steadily at or above 50. Sarah Palin’s fav/unfav was at – 14, a new low. It will be Saturday before we get tracking polls fully after Tuesday night’s debate. We know the insta-polls, now.

Democracy Corps:

Like the last debate, these voters felt that Obama was the winner of the debate (38 to 30 percent), but this time the debate also shifted their electoral preferences. After viewing the debate, 42 percent of these voters said they would support Obama if the election were held today, while just 26 percent would support McCain.

CNN, MoE 4%:

(h/t Al Rodgers for pic/screenshot)

CBS:

39 percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed identified Barack Obama as tonight’s winner; 27 percent said John McCain won, while 35 percent saw the debate as a draw.

After the debate, 68 percent of uncommitted voters said that they think Obama will make the right decisions on the economy, compared to 54 percent who said that before the debate. Fewer thought McCain would do so – 49 percent after the debate, and 41 percent before.

He who leads on the economy wins the election.

SurveyUSA (WA) MoE 3.7%

Of debate watchers:  

• 54% say Obama was the clear winner.
• 29% say McCain was the clear winner.
• 18% say there was no clear winner.

After the first Presidential Debate, Washington State gave McCain equal marks with Obama. Tonight, Obama margin is almost 2:1.

There seems no doubt on the cable channels or in hockey rinks around the country as to who won the debate. Starting tomorrow, the polls will begin to see if voting preference changed because of it.

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