Pakistan Maintains a Position of “Plausible Deniability”

The question for the Indian government is to what extent it should hold the government of Pakistan responsible for the unprecedented invasion and assault on its territory, citizens and tourists. The gunmen in question all came from Pakistan and were trained in Pakistan, however the government of Pakistan denies any responsibility and maintains a position of “plausible deniablity”. It maintains that it should not be held responsible for the unauthorized actions of its citizens who invaded and murdered from its territory (and not for the first time), in the same way that Lebanon denies responsibility of the actions of Hezbollah who infiltrate Israel from Lebanese territory.

This allows Pakistan the best of both worlds: Their radicals can use Pakistan territory as a base of operation against India and others without fear, while the government of Pakistan can maintain respectability, claiming ignorance and washing their hand of any actions emanating from their territory. That is an insufferable and untenable position that cannot be allowed to stand.

India now must decide how to respond. No response at all will only embolden the enemy and send the message to Pakistan that it’s business as usual. A non-response will eliminate any shred of deterrence or possibility that Pakistan will take action against its own radicals.

On the other hand, an all out war between the two nuclear powers would be a risk that no one can take. India needs to engage a few high-profile selective targets that will satisfy public demands for action and send the message that such deeds do not come without a heavy price, without triggering an all out war. It’s a fine line to walk with many variables and unpredictable outcomes. Interesting times lay ahead for South Asia.