Dem Cattle Call 2008: 01/07/07

Last results: 1) Clinton, 2) Obama, 3) Edwards, and the rest.

The last rankings were from 12/13, after Hillary had suffered a couple of bad weeks. Well, the holidays were no better, and she continued bleeding support through the end of the year and into the new year. Then Iowa happened, and, well, she’s no longer at the top.

THE TOP TIER

1. Barack Obama

He won Iowa, New Hampshire is falling in line for the expected rubber stamp, and the Clinton campaign is reeling (see below). His youth participation numbers are off the charts, independents love him (and may even help deprive McCain of a big NH victory because they’d rather vote for Obama), and the Republicans have no idea how to respond to him:

“Senator Obama has adopted the position of every liberal interest group in the country,” said Thompson.

Republicans spent so long running against Hillary, that they’ve been left having to improvise responses to Obama. And since their entire schtick seemed to be “I’m the one best able to defeat Hillary”, their reason for existence is threatened. Calling Obama a scary “liberal!” isn’t quite going to cut it.

2. Hillary Clinton

Her campaign is in civil war mode. Her advisers are conceding likely losses in New Hampshire and South Carolina. And suddenly the firewall becomes Florida — alongside Rudy, two New Yorkers praying against hope that transplanted Yankees breathe new life into their campaigns.

I’m not necessarily going to discount Hillary’s chances in places like New Jersey and California (New York seems a given) or places like Texas, but her “inevitability” theme — deeply wounded by Iowa — would be a rotting corpse after a full month of primary losses. Designed to scare off strong opposition and dry up her opponents’ fundraising, the “inevitability” thing simply set her up for a bigger fall. Oops.

THE SECOND TIER

3. John Edwards

Edwards clearly aligned himself with Obama against Hillary in Saturday’s debate, perhaps hoping that the rest of the contests this month deliver a Hillary knock out. But a 1-on-1 contest between Edwards and Obama favors the frontrunner, as Obama has the money, crowds, and organization that Edwards was never able to generate. Yet his fiery rhetoric often set the tone for the campaign, and his leadership on issues as diverse as the Nevada Fox News debate and Iraq helped push the primary in a decidedly progressive direction.

THE REST

Some Richardson is playing for Veep, the others are playing for … I don’t know why. I won’t try to guess.

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