WY-AL: New M-D poll boosts Trauner

Here’s a testament to the value of getting right back on the horse if you take a fall. A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Gary Trauner in a statistical dead heat with his most likely GOP opponent.

The poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C., on Jan. 18-21, surveyed 625 registered voters from across the state who said they regularly vote in Wyoming state elections. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

If the election were held now, Trauner would receive 41 percent of the vote, while Lummis would get 40 percent, the poll showed. The remaining 19 percent of voters said they were undecided.

Both candidates registered strong name recognition among potential voters.

Trauner, 47, had 80 percent voter name recognition. That’s even better than 76 percent name recognition he had in a Star-Tribune poll conducted less than a month before the 2006 general election.

Lummis, who was recognized by 70 percent of the voters in the recent poll, is by far the best known Republican candidate.

The Republican field for the seat is large, with a handful of perennial candidates and a few more high profile folks thinking about getting in. These poll numbers are likely to make them think twice about that, given the fact that Trauner has the commitment of national Democrats and the netroots to raise as much money as he’s going to need. It has the potential to be a very expensive race.

But beyond the cost of this election, they’ll be facing a formidable Democratic candidate, something that doesn’t happen too often in Wyoming federal races. But Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal is very popular, and Wyoming voters seem to be as ready as they’ve ever been to think about sending a Dem to D.C. The polling reveals that Trauner is very well positioned for it. Democrats favor Gary 8-1 over Lummis, and 26 percent of Republicans have said they’d be willing to cross party lines to vote for him in November. He’s got 37 percent among independents to Lummis’s 33.

The poll should put the lie to some of Gary’s detractors’ claim that he only ran so strong last year (losing by just 1,012 votes) because he was running against the remarkably unpopular Cubin. The story goes that he could only make such a serious challenge against a severely damaged opponent. But these poll numbers show the strength of Gary as a candidate, independent of his opponent. Or in Gary’s words

These polling numbers put to rest the conventional wisdom that Barbara Cubin was the only candidate we could beat.  However, there is a long way to go, and the only poll that really matters is on November 4.  Our standing in the polls is simply a reflection that people are tired of standard-issue “say one thing, do another and hope no one is paying attention” politicians. People in Wyoming are yearning for leaders who think independently; leaders who have strength and the courage of their convictions;  leaders who will do the right thing regardless of party.

On the Web:

Trauner for Congress
Blue Majority page

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