PPIC in CA: Obama 49, McCain 40; Clinton 46, McCain 43

Like the Q-poll in CT, the PPIC poll shows Obama doing better than McCain in California, and doing better than Hillary against McCain. And while folks will concentrate on the horse race (which is more over than current), the PPIC poll has some rich material about attitudes toward Iraq, the economy and other issues that are well worth exploring. [h/t poblano]

Obama 49
Mccain  40

Clinton 46
McCain  43

So the skinny on the head to heads?

Is Hillary likely to lose California? Not in a competitive election; Hillary is still 92% to win the state even after this poll is included, and for all its electoral votes, California does not yet show up on her Swing State list.

Still, there are some troublesome internals in here for Clinton, most notably her favorability ratings: 45 favorable, 52 unfavorable. Obama, by contrast, is 61/34 (McCain is 49/45). This from a solid, nonprofit pollster that has been polling its state for many years, and over a particularly large sample (2,002 respondents).

But this poll also shows solid Democratic leads on issues that matter (click pic).

Californians prefer Democrats on the economy (50-37), Iraq (48-38), health care (59-27) and immigration (42-37). Bush gets 24% approval (big hug, John), and 73% think we’re going in the wrong direction.

Is the surge making things better?

34% better
22 worse
37 no impact
7 don’t know

So what should we do?

38% keep in Iraq until stabilized
58 bring home as soon as possible
4 don’t know

Predictions? Let’s just say in a change election, Republicans are at a disadvantage.

Margin of error +/-2% AT 95% confidence level for total sample